Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 19,306
2 New Jersey 18,063
3 Rhode Island 14,091
4 Massachusetts 14,068
5 District of Columbia 12,470
6 Connecticut 11,836
7 Delaware 9,753
8 Illinois 9,516
9 Maryland 8,842
10 Louisiana 8,608
11 Nebraska 7,289
12 Iowa 6,218
13 Pennsylvania 5,953
14 Michigan 5,743
15 South Dakota 5,643
16 Indiana 5,262
17 Virginia 5,226
18 Mississippi 5,208
19 Colorado 4,578
20 Minnesota 4,408
21 Georgia 4,243
22 New Mexico 3,666
23 Alabama 3,661
24 New Hampshire 3,420
25 Kansas 3,390
26 North Dakota 3,385
27 Tennessee 3,343
28 Wisconsin 3,163
29 Utah 3,065
30 Ohio 3,038
31 Washington 2,960
32 California 2,862
33 Nevada 2,801
34 Arizona 2,738
35 North Carolina 2,735
36 Florida 2,614
37 Arkansas 2,403
38 South Carolina 2,303
39 Texas 2,240
40 Kentucky 2,224
41 Missouri 2,166
42 Maine 1,729
43 Oklahoma 1,644
44 Idaho 1,597
45 Vermont 1,572
46 Wyoming 1,560
47 Puerto Rico 1,182
48 West Virginia 1,121
49 Oregon 1,005
50 Alaska 641
51 Montana 481
52 Hawaii 453

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Maryland 172
2 District of Columbia 145
3 Nebraska 144
4 Rhode Island 136
5 Mississippi 126
6 Virginia 125
7 Illinois 117
8 Minnesota 112
9 Delaware 111
10 Iowa 100
11 Massachusetts 100
12 Arizona 99
13 New Jersey 98
14 North Carolina 97
15 Alabama 96
16 Utah 91
17 Louisiana 79
18 Arkansas 78
19 California 76
20 Indiana 76
21 South Dakota 75
22 Colorado 72
23 South Carolina 69
24 Wisconsin 69
25 New York 68
26 New Hampshire 64
27 Connecticut 60
28 Georgia 52
29 Tennessee 52
30 New Mexico 51
31 Pennsylvania 49
32 Michigan 47
33 Texas 47
34 Ohio 45
35 Florida 44
36 Kansas 41
37 Nevada 41
38 North Dakota 41
39 Maine 33
40 Kentucky 31
41 Washington 31
42 Puerto Rico 30
43 Missouri 26
44 Oklahoma 19
45 Alaska 17
46 Idaho 15
47 Wyoming 15
48 West Virginia 13
49 Oregon 12
50 Montana 9
51 Vermont 3
52 Hawaii 1

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,526
2 New Jersey 1,317
3 Connecticut 1,106
4 Massachusetts 993
5 Rhode Island 677
6 District of Columbia 660
7 Louisiana 600
8 Michigan 549
9 Pennsylvania 433
10 Illinois 428
11 Maryland 418
12 Delaware 375
13 Indiana 316
14 Colorado 250
15 Mississippi 246
16 Georgia 190
17 Minnesota 186
18 Ohio 184
19 New Hampshire 180
20 Iowa 170
21 New Mexico 169
22 Virginia 161
23 Washington 147
24 Nevada 136
25 Alabama 128
26 Missouri 127
27 Arizona 124
28 Florida 114
29 California 107
30 Wisconsin 102
31 Kentucky 98
32 South Carolina 95
33 Nebraska 92
34 Vermont 88
35 North Carolina 86
36 Oklahoma 84
37 North Dakota 83
38 Kansas 72
39 South Dakota 70
40 Maine 66
41 Texas 58
42 Tennessee 52
43 Idaho 45
44 Arkansas 44
45 Puerto Rico 42
46 West Virginia 41
47 Oregon 36
48 Utah 35
49 Wyoming 27
50 Montana 15
51 Hawaii 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Rhode Island 12
2 Connecticut 11
3 New Jersey 11
4 Massachusetts 9
5 Delaware 7
6 District of Columbia 6
7 Illinois 5
8 Maryland 5
9 Minnesota 4
10 Mississippi 4
11 New York 4
12 Pennsylvania 4
13 Indiana 3
14 Louisiana 3
15 Michigan 3
16 Missouri 3
17 New Hampshire 3
18 New Mexico 3
19 South Dakota 3
20 Alabama 2
21 Arizona 2
22 Georgia 2
23 Iowa 2
24 Wisconsin 2
25 California 1
26 Colorado 1
27 Florida 1
28 Kentucky 1
29 Maine 1
30 Nebraska 1
31 Nevada 1
32 North Carolina 1
33 North Dakota 1
34 Ohio 1
35 South Carolina 1
36 Virginia 1
37 Alaska 0
38 Arkansas 0
39 Hawaii 0
40 Idaho 0
41 Kansas 0
42 Montana 0
43 Oklahoma 0
44 Oregon 0
45 Puerto Rico 0
46 Tennessee 0
47 Texas 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 123,361 1 99
Dakota Nebraska 83,342 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 75,399 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 71,154 4 99
Lake Tennessee 59,008 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 7,614 274 91
Richland South Carolina 3,651 692 77
Pierce Washington 2,158 1071 65
Orange California 2,001 1139 63
York South Carolina 1,449 1417 54

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Terrell Georgia 3,048 1 99
Early Georgia 3,042 2 99
Hancock Georgia 2,838 3 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 4 99
Essex New Jersey 2,083 5 99
Richland South Carolina 159 604 80
Davidson Tennessee 89 850 72
Pierce Washington 87 865 72
Orange California 46 1215 61
York South Carolina 28 1419 54

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons